Has the war started?

Since the end of the Cold War, there have been numerous instances when the world seemed on the brink of a new world war. However, these situations often normalized after a few days or weeks, revealing themselves to be mere flare-ups of recent or once dormant issues.

Currently, China, aside from its constant tensions with Taiwan, is striving for dominance in the Pacific region and control over mineral-rich countries in Africa and Asia while Russia continues its attempts to re-establish its Soviet-style influence over former USSR client States.

And while Iran aims to dismantle U.S. and Western hegemony in the Middle East, the Turkish and Qatari-backed Muslim Brotherhood seek to dominate the Arab world.

Often, the thought of war evokes images similar to those depicted in movies or documentaries: tanks and troops moving across large swathes of land with the skies full of aircraft.

But times and tactics have changed. With the increasing cost of war and the availability of new tools, the will to engage in all-out wars with traditional and conventional methods of warfare may be diminishing and conflicts are now fought in innovative and radically different ways.

Ukraine is an example of this, both now and in the past. When Crimea was invaded, the world was initially unable to grasp what was happening — men in unmarked military uniforms appeared in strategic locations, and by the time the situation was understood, it was too late.

This was hybrid warfare in practice, a concept that, while not entirely new, has gained more relevance in recent years.

Hybrid warfare remains a contested concept without a universally agreed definition. It involves a mixture of conventional and unconventional instruments of power and tools of subversion to inflict damage on another state, using an expanding toolkit to undermine the adversary.

Hybrid warfare is characterized by two distinct features. First, it blurs the line between wartime and peacetime, making it challenging to pinpoint when a state of war actually begins. This ambiguity makes war elusive and difficult to clearly define or counter, yet it achieves the same result as traditional warfare.

Hybrid attacks are generally marked by vagueness. This obscurity is intentionally created and enlarged by hybrid actors to complicate attribution and response. In other words, the targeted country may not be able to detect a hybrid attack or attribute it to a state that might be perpetrating or sponsoring it.

Global community is being called to recognise the changing nature of conflict

Instead of engaging in open warfare, we are witnessing fierce strategic competition. As a result, the West is no being undermined through economic and cultural tactics without resorting to violence.

A defining characteristic of hybrid warfare is the ambiguity it creates. This goes hand in hand with misinformation, which is a crucial component of hybrid warfare.

Misinformation sows confusion, undermines support for authority and the truth, and creates instability.

While the spectre of traditional warfare looms large in our collective consciousness, the reality of contemporary conflicts is markedly different. The evolution of hybrid warfare signifies a crucial shift and in such a context, it is imperative to recognize the profound shift in how wars are waged and perceived.

Hybrid warfare, with its blend of traditional military might and unconventional tactics, exemplifies this transformation, where the need for vigilance and adaptability becomes paramount.

The West, and indeed the global community, must develop robust strategies to counteract these subtle yet potent forms of aggression by investing in intelligence, cybersecurity, and counter-misinformation efforts which can be crucial in mitigating the impacts of hybrid warfare.

This calls for enhanced international cooperation and clear communication among allies to boost resilience against these elusive threats. While the spectre of large-scale, conventional wars may be receding, the battle for influence and control continues unabated in more covert and insidious forms.

Ultimately, understanding and addressing the nuances of hybrid warfare is not just a matter of military strategy but a comprehensive approach with economic, political, and cultural undertones.

The global community is being called to recognise the changing nature of conflict if we want a better chance of safeguarding peace and stability in an increasingly complex world.

This awareness and proactive stance may ultimately prevent the escalation of conflicts, ensuring that flare-ups remain just that – temporary disturbances rather than precursors to a new world war.