Tomorrow, May 14, Turkish voters will elect their next president. They have to choose between long-time incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and economist and opposition leader Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu, backed by a broad opposition.
Turkey, with its 85 million people, plays a critical role in the present geopolitical backdrop of a raging war on Europe’s eastern border and a growing, unresolved migration crisis in the Mediterranean.
The choice the Turkish electorate has to make is a clear one. They can re-elect Erdoğan for more-of-the-same policies and the authoritarian style of the presidential government of the last 20 years.
Alternatively, they can opt for change and elect Kiliçdaroğlu, who wants to scrap the presidential system and become an “impartial” leader.
Turkey is part of the West’s NATO defensive alliance that, in the last two years, has found a new purpose in life because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Erdoğan wants to promote the concept of a multilateral Turkey acting as a middleman between Russia and the EU. He seeks close ties with China and Russia, buying a Russian air defence system and recently inaugurating a Russian-built nuclear plant. But Turkey continues supplying weapons, most significantly drones, to Ukraine while refusing to sanction Russia. And, alongside Hungary, it is still blocking Sweden’s membership of NATO.
Kiliçdaroğlu, nicknamed the ‘Turkish Gandhi’, is promising significant changes. He wants to unfreeze EU accession talks that have been at a standstill since 2018 over the country’s democratic backsliding.
He wants to achieve this by introducing liberalising reforms regarding the rule of law, media freedoms and de-politicisation of the judiciary. If he is elected, this will not be easy, as EU member states, especially France and Austria, seem unprepared to handle a new Turkey with simmering problems on their eastern borders.
As in most elections, the state of the economy will weigh heavily on how the Turkish electorate will vote. This is a critical moment for Turkey’s economy. Inflation is officially at 44 per cent. The early Erdoğan years were characterised by strong economic growth and enormous construction projects.
But his government abandoned orthodox economic policies over the years, eroding the central bank’s independence and sacking three of its governors in quick succession. Erdoğan is now promising six million new jobs and massive investment in tourism.
Kiliçdaroğlu would likely make his government return to orthodox economic policies if elected. He wants an independent central bank to lower inflation to 30 per cent by the end of 2023 and continue to go down even if this is done at the cost of higher interest rates. Unlike most European countries, Turkey is still cheap and its location, young population and adequate infrastructure offer critical competitive advantages that can attract foreign investors.
There are other critically important issues that Turkey needs to address. Shoddily-built housing – seemingly against safety regulations – is blamed for the loss of thousands of lives during the earthquake that devastated parts of the country last February.
A key challenge is the migration policy. In the past several years, Turkey has acted as a temporary station for migrants fleeing wars in Syria and Africa.
Kiliçdaroğlu wants to coordinate his migration policy with the EU but has a more hard-line approach to reversing the migration trend. He says he will negotiate the Syrian refugees’ return with Damascus but his opposition parties want more drastic action.
Europe currently faces formidable economic, social and security challenges in complex geopolitical realities. The Turkey presidential election is critical as the choices made by the Turkish electorate will, ultimately, impact the lives of many Europeans.