The year 2024 unfolded as a pivotal chapter on the global stage, marked by seismic shifts in power, enduring conflicts, and a mixed tapestry of hope and despair.  From Donald Trump’s shock election in the US to the brutal wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon and Sudan, and direct missile strikes between Israel and Iran, the international news headlines were on fire.

But it was not all doom and gloom: In Syria the horrendous Assad dictatorship collapsed like a pack of cards bringing hope to the Syrian people after years of suffering and war. 

And half the world’s population went to the polls – and in many cases brought about peaceful and positive change. Elections in countries like Russia and Venezuela were farcical, but in others like India and South Africa, the vote showed that democracies were strong and resilient. And although far-right parties in the European Parliament elections increased their vote, the centre held.

Trump’s election without doubt presents major challenges both for the US and the international community. The fact that Trump – a convicted felon who tried to overturn the 2020 presidential election – won the election tells us a lot about the state of American democracy.

It also means that America’s institutions – the judiciary, the media and Congress – will now be put to the test. Time will tell just how mature a democracy America is. Having Trump in the White House will also be a wake-up call for Europe and NATO as the US security umbrella can no longer be taken for granted. While Europe must do all it can to keep the transatlantic partnership in place, it will need to strengthen its defence and security capabilities to the point that it no longer needs to rely on the US. 

In Europe, the weakening of the French and German governments after the EP elections was not good news for the EU.

Emmanuel Macron’s snap parliamentary election soon after resulted in no bloc achieving a majority, and the country has not had a stable government since.

And Olaf Scholz’s coalition collapsed earlier this month, with elections being held in February. France and Germany are indispensable EU actors and the challenge for centrist parties is to address the concerns of voters who vote for the populist right without resorting to populism.

In Moldova, however, voters re-elected a pro-EU president and voted for EU membership despite massive Russian interference, and in Georgia hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets to protest against the government’s decision to freeze the country’s EU membership talks.

Russia continued its savage and relentless attacks on Ukraine in 2024, even resorting to the use of North Korean troops, and made some small territorial gains.

The war is now at a stalemate with no end in sight. While the incoming Trump administration’s policy towards Ukraine is not clear, and China continues sitting on the fence, both Europe and America should re-evaluate their Ukraine strategy. After an almost three-year brutal war, both Russia and Ukrained need to start considering concessions.

Israel took its disgraceful war in Gaza to new heights, invaded Lebanon, assassinated the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, and came into direct conflict with Iran. The death toll in Gaza and Lebanon reached over 45,500 and 3,500, mainly civilians. The US proved it had little leverage over Israel as it flouted international law. 

The creation of a Palestinian state now seems like a distant dream, with Israel’s right-wing government led by Benjamin Netanyahu openly opposing it. Europe must now make it clear that relations with Israel will be downgraded unless it stops its attacks on Gaza and commits itself to supporting a Palestinian state.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, who are considering diplomatic relations with Israel, must link this to Israel’s acceptance of a Palestinian state.

The overthrow of the Assad dynasty in Syria was one of the positive developments in 2024 but whether the country has a bright future depends on the rebel HTS group sticking to its word about respecting the rights of women and religious and ethnic minorities.

The West should recognise the new Syrian government and make aid dependent on an inclusive and secular Syria. The collapse of Assad, Iran’s ally, also means Teheran is increasingly isolated in the region. It was further weakened by Israel’s near decimation of its partner Hezbollah.

The fear now is that Iran will speed up its nuclear programme, which would also be a game changer.  Europe should consider starting a dialogue with Teheran and promising much needed aid in return for not pursuing a nuclear path.

The coming year will test the ability of nations to adapt and cooperate to prevent the crises of today from becoming the catastrophes of tomorrow.