The Electoral Commission quietly introduced a new methodology for calculating voter turnout during Saturday’s election, plunging election watchers into momentary confusion.
As in previous elections, provisional turnout was based on the number of eligible voters - in other words, the number of registered voters who collected their voting documents.
But for the first time, the voter turnout percentage factored in votes cast in early voting sessions held in the past days.
The decision to factor them into provisional turnout calculations was made because of a dramatic increase in the number of early votes cast, an Electoral Commission spokesperson told Times of Malta.
"We included early voters in the calculation to give a truer picture of actual turnout," they said.
The change means provisional turnout figures issued on Saturday cannot be directly compared to those in previous European Parliament elections. A direct comparison will only be possible once the final turnout figures are released, most likely on Sunday.
Police officers, voters being held in hospital and care homes and others unable to vote on Saturday were among those given the opportunity to cast their vote well before Saturday.
While historically around 3,000 votes are cast before the actual voting day, this time round that number more than tripled to roughly 10,000.
The increase could be due to a change in rules introduced last month which did away with the need for early voters to take an oath stating that they will be abroad or indisposed on voting day.
The switch in methodology became apparent when the Commission released provisional turnout figures that showed that turnout reached almost 43% by 2pm, a figure significantly higher than provisional figures in previous European Parliament elections.
In 2019, for instance, the Commission said turnout by 2pm had reached 32%.
The Commission’s turnout statement made no mention of a change in methodology and did not explain how it had calculated turnout, further adding to the confusion. Nor did it provide a breakdown of turnout by district.
Party operatives in confusion
It appears the Commission – which is made up of nominees of the Labour and Nationalist parties – did not even inform those two parties about its new system.
Times of Malta spoke to operatives within both those parties, who admitted they were flummoxed by the turnout percentages provided and were struggling to make sense of them.
One theory was that the calculations included early votes - a theory that subsequently proved to be correct.
Pollster Vincent Marmara suggested the discrepancy was because the Commission previously based calculations on the number of registered voters, and was now using eligible voter totals as a baseline.
A total of 370,184 people were registered to vote in the European Parliament elections, according to the Electoral Register.
Unofficial figures provided to Times of Malta by the country’s two major political parties suggest 37,217, or roughly 10 per cent, of voting documents went uncollected, bringing the total number of eligible voters to 322,967.