Germany holds an early election today caused by the breakdown of the coalition government formed by the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP Liberals).
What caused the breakup of the coalition was the extreme ideology of the Green Party which has become the home of many budding immigrant politicians who have found a home and a platform to enter parliament via this party.
Apart from environmental demands such as closing nuclear energy plants during the energy crisis caused by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, they also pushed the coalition towards an open policy towards immigration which grew by several millions as a result of the Ukraine invasion. Germany had already been stretched in its immigration policy by Angela Merkel who had opened the borders to Syrians and Afghans by the millions a few years before.
Together with the Socialists, the Greens pushed for more and more direct payments to all new immigrants, spending far too much of the national budget already stretched by the increase in military spending to reach the two per cent NATO requirement and the arming of the Ukrainian military.
Because of this excessive spending, the budget could no longer finance the infrastructure and the reconstruction of industry that Germany needed following COVID.
The Liberals tried to keep these spending demands by the left-wing of the coalition within limits since they held the Finance Ministry and could topple the government if they wanted.
The opposition consisted of the largest single party in Germany, the CDU/CSU (Christian Democrats). Previously under Helmut Kohl, this party had around 45 per cent of the national vote but lost many voters under Merkel who was too soft on immigration and failed to force immigrants to integrate even allowing family reunions before adoption of German citizenship of the asylum seekers.
During this time, as in other parts of Europe, a hard nucleus of neo-Nazis formed an ultra-right party which had the support of around eight per cent of the population. Under the present coalition their sympathisers increased, and, tired of ultra liberalism, many joined the far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD), more than doubling its support to 20 per cent, according to the latest opinion polls.
The present coalition has dropped to about 30 per cent in the polls. The SDP is polling at 16 per cent (compared to 25 per cent at the last election) and the Greens are at 13 per cent (15 per cent last election). The Liberals, who are no longer part of the coalition, have dropped to five per cent (11 per cent last election).
All the other smaller parties are not acceptable to join coalitions since they are considered to be anti-democratic, such as the far-right AFD and the Left party. The Left is the former Communist Party which attracts former Communists and former East German sympathisers but which has started to appeal to a growing number of youngsters who fear the growth of the far right.
The Left received seven per cent of the vote at the last election but later broke up into two parties when Sarah Wagenknecht left the party to start one of her own and the two together now have the support of 12 per cent in polls.
The only alternative seems to be a so-called grand coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats- John Vassallo
If the polls are reflected in today’s vote it will be very difficult for any one party to form a government since neither the Green/Social Democrat bloc with 30 per cent nor the CDU/CSU who are polling at 30 per cent have a majority alone. Coalitions with the Communists or the extreme right are impossible due to their anti-democratic stamp.
The only alternative seems to be what Merkel did after her election victory over Gerhard Schroeder, namely a so-called grand coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats which would have around 46 per cent of the votes. Should the Liberals (FDP) reach the five per cent threshold to enter parliament and join the grand coalition then the combined vote would be over 50 per cent.
Another alternative would be a CDU Green coalition but that would only have 44 per cent and would need the support of the Social Democrats.
The issues in this election are the regeneration of the economy and the creation of jobs in German manufacturing, especially the SMEs which are and have been the backbone of the German economic miracle in the past, the reduction and repatriation of immigrants illegally in Germany or those who fail to prove they benefit from asylum conditions and the stopping of family reunions and expulsion of immigrants with double nationality who commit serious crimes.
The energy issue must be resolved to keep energy prices under control and another key issue is the strengthening of German defence within NATO and the continued deepening of the European Union with the Franco German friendship that has driven the EU to new policies in the past.
These are positions held by the Christian Democrats of Kohl and Merkel in the past and firmly so by the present pro-Europe CDU leader Friedrich Merz.
If a stable government capable of addressing Germany’s many challenges is not formed after today’s vote, the whole of Europe will suffer. After three years of no growth in Germany and the loss of investments to the outside world, Germany is falling behind. Too much social spending and too much bureaucracy and too few trained workers for the needs of modern industry can lead to stalemate. The EU will suffer as the main financer will stall and, with no one at the wheel in Germany, the European ship will also go off course.
Moreover, without a solution, the unhappy number of citizens will grow and may flow towards the far right and the far left.
The centre parties must come together to solve the problems that up to 80 per cent of the electorate share, namely the economy, immigration and lack of integration, energy, defence and Europe.
John Vassallo is a former Ambassador to the EU.